Our data journalist, James, doesn't mince words.
‘That is a very boring chart’, he said about our visualisation of Australia's gross emissions.
What do you think?
Let's unpack it while reviewing Australia's quarterly greenhouse gas update, which was released a couple of weeks ago.
Headline Numbers
First, here's some context for that chart, above.
It shows gross emissions. That means total emissions we put into the atmosphere before any removals.
The chart below shows Australia's net emissions. That means total emissions put into the atmosphere minus emissions removed.
Australia only reports net emissions. That's the headline metric for the nation's targets.
Latest update (for year to June): 440.8 Mt CO2-e
- -9% lower than previous year
- -28% lower than 2005 (2030 Target: -43% lower than 2005)
But the OnlyFacts team believes gross emissions are important too. So we calculate them ourselves.
We'll show you how we do that below, as we rebuild both these curves to examine what's below them.
Our aim is to help you see beyond the headline number of total net emissions, and understand how different sectors contribute to the big picture.
Stationary Energy
Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are split into three categories: electricity, transport, and stationary energy.
Stationary Energy means emissions that come from burning fuels like gas or oil for energy in ‘stationary’ places, such as buildings and power plants.
This sector dipped in the last year (-2.3%) but its emissions are +21.2% higher than 2005.
Transport
Transport emissions are from road, rail, domestic air travel, domestic ships, and gas pipelines.
This is the only sector that rose in the last year (+2.0%) as it finally claws back to pre-Covid levels.
Transport emissions are +20.2% higher than 2005.
Let's add Transport to Stationary Energy. Together, their emissions are +21% higher than 2005.
Fugitive Emissions
Fugitive emissions are released by the mining and gas industries when they extract fossil fuels.
They fell in the last year (-1.4%), but are +10.1% higher than 2005.
Together, emissions from these three sectors — Fugitive Emissions, Transport, and Stationary Energy — are +19% higher than 2005.
Industrial Processes
Industrial Process emissions come from chemical, metal and mineral production, as well as fridges and air-conditioners.
They have been rising gradually for about 10 years, due to HFC refrigerant use. They're also closely linked with the amount of steel we make.
They fell in the last year (-1.3%), but are +7.3% higher than 2005.
Together, the emissions from these four sectors are +17% higher than 2005.
Agriculture
Agriculture emissions come from things like 'enteric fermentation' (i.e. belching and farting animals), manure, treating soils for crops, and burning fields.
These fell -2.3% in the last year. They're also the first sector in this briefing with lower emissions today than in 2005 (-4.9%).
If we add Agriculture to the other four sectors, the emissions from these five are now only +11% higher than 2005.
Waste
Waste emissions come from landfills, decomposing organics, waste incineration, and wastewater treatment.
The sector's reported emissions figure has remained unchanged for nine quarters (see the data history here).
This in itself is a reminder that these numbers don't so much reflect real-world emissions, as our best attempts to estimate them. In the case of waste, estimates are influenced by the amount of methane captured at landfills.
Compared with 2005 levels, Waste emissions are estimated to be -11.8% lower.
Together, the emissions from these six sectors are +10% higher than 2005.
Electricity
Finally, we get to the two sectors that are driving most of Australia's reductions.
Electricity emissions (which come from burning fossil fuels to generate electricity) fell -0.2% in the last year and have plummeted -22.2% since 2005.
If we add Electricity to the other sectors, our emissions have fallen to -2% below 2005 levels.
Recognise that shape? It's the same as the gross emissions chart. More on that below.
Land Use
There is one sector missing — Land Use*.
These are emissions linked to the ways we use and manage land, such as forestry, agriculture, land clearing, deforestation and fires.
This sector is unique, as it's both a source and sink of greenhouse gas emissions.
Because it's the only sector that removes emissions from the atmosphere, OnlyFacts uses 'net emissions excluding Land Use' as a proxy for gross emissions.
Land Use emissions have remained unchanged for 10 quarters (see the data history here). We'll look at this in more detail another time.
They are reported as being -218% below 2005 levels.
Finally, let's add Land Use to the other sectors. Emissions across all eight are -28% lower than 2005.
We've arrived back at the headline number — Australia's Net emissions. Now you know what's below the curve.
Upshot: Australia's national emissions are steady. They're locked at the centre of a tug-of-war between Electricity, which is driving them down, and other sectors (especially Transport) which are dragging them up.
P.s. You can do this exercise yourself, if you fancy! Use the live, interactive charts at OnlyFacts. This chart lives on the Emissions dashboard - https://onlyfacts.io/emissions.
Data notes
- Mt CO2-e: Million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
- Department of Climate Change full name is Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW)
- Land Use full name is Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
Credits
- Data sources: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water
- Climate data briefing by Juliette O’Brien OAM (Words and Data), James Wagner (Data), and Anthony Macali OAM (Data)